My Investment: MNKD

So it has been some time after I gambled 100 unit of MNKD at $0.65 per share and I earned a few dollars for that after I sell at at $0.93. Now I fully regretted that I sold the shares, it's $1.33 today! I've blogged about it previously: here.

Well, ever since I discover this company, I always wonder why Sanofi suddenly terminates the contract for such  a revolutionary new drug. I do have plan to re-invest (with larger investment capital) into MNKD. Since I planned to invest larger, I did some study on it's financial reports. The result, it isn't pretty at all!

So MNKD was a pure R&D company who had spend over 10 years to come out with Afrezza and when they finally get the FDA approval and a deal with Sanofi, they expect to start earning profit from the sale. Unfortunately, Sanofi changed their mind and canceled the contract. Without any backup plan, and with the sudden left of the company founder Alfred Mann, the company is now lead by a not so competent CEO Matt, with very little cash left and uncertainties kicks in.

This company is in deep deep trouble! 

Meyer Rothschild: "Buy when there is blood on the streets."

So now should be a great time to buy this company since I believe in it's product. But wait! Why Sanofi suddenly canceled the deal if it's such a great thing? There are many conspiracy theories and rumors among the investors and traders speculating about the real reason behind the cancellation, here are some of them:

1. Official Reason: Weak Sales

This is the official reason given by Sanofi. They claimed that they had put the best effort and the sales are still weak. Well, I doubt that it's real. I believe that the reason for weak sale is because it's still new and it's not well marketed. I haven't even heard of such product until I discover this company share price turned penny. 

2. Change of Sanofi's CEO

So Chris Viehbacher has been fired by Sanofi's BoD, the new CEO Olivier Brandicourt leadership style is totally different! Some said that Brandicourt view Afrezza as a potential treat to they company's core product and should not be supported by the company. Therefore, Sanofi made a decision to cancel the deal.

3. Fear of Recall

Sanofi earnings was deeply affected by the recent recall of their Auvi-Q product. Which is the main trigger for Brandicourt to cancel the deal in fear of any un-foreseen problem with Afrezza. His fear is almost Luddite! I would say, if this is true, this almost an insult to FDA which had rejected and delayed their approval for Afrezza previously to ensure its safety. FDA have been working on it since 2010! Furthermore, Auvi-Q's failure is a mechanical failure, it has nothing to do with Afrezza.

Kiasi Is My Culture!

Because I'm kinda worried about the point number 3, I did some homework reading on Fumaryl Diketopiperazine (FDKP). Just copy and paste the name and search it on Google, plenty of research papers available. From the ones by MannKind, also with those from independent scholars. I think it is a new use of this particle, but it is pretty convincing that there won't be any significant side effect in short to medium term. 

It is not just Afrezza

The key value of MNKD is not just Afrezza. Technosphere is the key! Many other drugs can be delivered with this technology. It is the key to open up new medication delivery method. Therefore, to sell Afrezza is just a short term plan to get the company out of the financial trouble. The R&D team still have this fancy TS toy to play with and make magic. I'm pretty convinced that this company can grow big.

I have position in this company! You do your own evaluation, I didn't ask you to buy or sell MNKD. It's up to you, you gotta do your own homework!

Be an Informed Opponent of TPP, Not a Speculative One! Part 2&3

Part 2&3 of Sanya's presentation is about the biggest Modern Days Trojan Horse -- Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS). There is NO DOUBT that ISDS is the greatest trap by US. They even stated that in their own USTR website. Therefore, it is not a secret US world economic domination agenda. It is clearly, an agenda to take advantages of the members who signed it. If you browse the USTR web, it literally tells you that:

"Because of the safeguards in U.S. agreements and because of the high standards of our legal system, foreign investors rarely pursue arbitration against the United States and have never been successful when they have done so. "

Therefore, the point presented by Sanya is a valid point. The main question is, why other countries, such as New zealand, Australia, Mexico... etc, willing to receive this Trojan Horse? They all know about the history and the consequences (NAFTA is the best example).

The Illusion: More Texts Doesn't Mean Better
There are several examples raised by Sanya, all of them are under different sets of treaties. The Occidental v. Ecuador case rule under US-Ecuador BIT. While the "US always win" cases are under NAFTA.

Looking at the nature of the TPP as a regional FTA, the Chapter 9 is full of exceptions and annexes for each countries, providing different protection for the parties. This created a false sense of security for those who read the agreement. After I read the Chp9, I do feel that it is not a problem signing this agreement. However, this is very naive of me.

TPP Chp9 has a lot of similarity to NAFTA Chp11. Where the chapter seems good and fair, the real implementation and execution is not. Here comes the "US always win" and "Canada always dismissed" situation. The agreement isn't fair at all. Although TPP Chp9 included a lot of exceptions, it appears to be vague. The US investors still have plenty of rooms to make troubles if they like.

Conclusion
For the part 2 and 3, Sanya did brought up the biggest concern on TPP, the ISDS! While the texts did seems great, it only works for countries with strong legal system. Then why 'the hell' Malaysia want to sign this agreement?

Without prejudice to a claimant’s right to submit other claims to arbitration pursuant to Article 9.18 (Submission of a Claim to Arbitration), Malaysia does not consent to the submission of a claim that Malaysia has breached a government procurement contract with a covered investment, below the specified contract value, for a period of three years after the date of entry into force of this Agreement for Malaysia. The specified contract values are: (a) for goods, SDR 1,500,000; (b) for services, SDR 2,000,000; and (c) for construction, SDR 63,000,000. ~ (Annex 9-K, Chapter 9, TPP)

Dear Malaysian, are you now understand the reason why our current government agree upon such agreement? Our former PM Abdullah had turned down the similar agreement years ago, why now our current PM Najib support such agreement? It seems like "Hey, bro, I want your trojan horse but please send it to me only after 3 years!". Just let your imagination run wild! Tell me what will happen in Malaysia after 3 years?

The Intellectual Property Chapter
I will blog about IP chapter tomorrow since I do have different views on it. 

Be an Informed Opponent of TPP, Not a Speculative One! Part 1

Warning: Personal point of views. As the title of my blog, this is Trash Talk.

Yesterday I finally got some free time watching this recording of Sanya Reid Smith presenting her opposing views on TPP. To be frank, I felt discomfort after watching the first part of the video. I find it speculative and misleading. I posted a facebook post about it after that to voice my concern. However, I do feel that I need to further blog about it to place more solid facts on this.

My Stance

I am 50% supportive of TPP, with the condition that RCEP signed successfully. I believe that both are inter-related as a form of international political agenda by two major powerhouses: United States and China. Therefore, it is important for Malaysia to have both position. If RCEP is not going to be successful, TPP could be a huge trap (It can happen just like how US turn AMF into a junk). However, if RCEP is going to be signed, TPP can be a form of defence card against China. It is always safe for Malaysia to be in both TPP and RCEP. Either M'sia will survived being a hypocrite or get squeezed in between US and China. 

The Video
Watch the video to hear Sanya's views on TPP.

Part 1: 
The Bad Examples

At 3:19, she used an example of rice import. M'sia's BERNAS is the monopoly who got special license to import rice products without paying tariffs (license end 2016). Refer to Vengedasalam's study on M'sian rice trade, we do not produce enough rice for our own. Therefore, to have a free trade on rice is extremely important to ensure food adundance. Furthermore, rice is an important food source in M'sia, if M'sia impose tariff on it, of course the government will earn a lot, but we will starve becasue we do not have the ability to fullfil our own need! Her logic will only be true if more M'sian become rice farmers, which is a bad idea for an industrailized country. Furthermore, to ship the rice from US to M'sia had increased it's costs compare to locally produced rice. No matter how much subsidies the US government gave to their farmers, if they export their rice, their subsidies came along with it. I don't think US could be that stupid to do so.

Palm oil & Indonesia is another super bad example. How could M'sia palm oil goes into Indonesia when Indonesia increases it's export tax? I can't get the logic. Indonesia is the largest palm producer n their production exceeding their own need n they never import palm oil! If Indonesia really did increase their export tax, it actually gained M'sia a better position in the market because palm oil from Malaysia will be cheaper. Furthermore, the exclusive nature of TPP had put the original members in a more disadvantage position according to Pradumna's study. If Indonesia decided to join later, they will have to get along with the original members. That's what had happened to Japan, where they have to met a lot of pre-conditions in order to get into TPP negotiations according to Kelsey.

Wrong Tarriff-Elimination Schedule Information: 4y More, Not 14y!
I don't blame her for getting it wrong. The document is 200+ pages long and she had picked a bad example: rice! Msia's rice tariff schedule is in B11 stage, 11 years to zero-tariff. While US's rice tariff schedule for Msia is in B5 stage, 5 years to zero-tariff. Therefore, the number is a tricky one to play with.

Furthermore, the max 30 years tariff schedule from US are items listed in the catagory US17 and US24. There were only 40 items under US17 cat, and 58 items under US24. Majority of the items are only enforced for Canada and New Zealand. I can't find any US17 or US24 imposed to Malaysia in the US tariff schedule. For Msia, the maximum tariff schedule is US23 cat, 20 years on cane sugar. Therefore, check the fact before taking this point. 

The Good Example

The only good example is on the scraps materials. Recycling based industries are never that green and clean. Sometimes, it could be toxic. It is possible that some developed countries are looking for a way to get rid of their trashes, using the holistic name of "recycling" and get back the recycled materials. India is the best example! It has been known that the US exported their obsolete trashes there for the purpose of recycling to get the metals. The process is in India, therefore, all those toxic wastes, gases, will be in India, and they will get back the clean recycled final products which are metals. Fishy indeed. That is the best evidence to oppose TPP.

The Strongest Point

Great point about the exception list. Mustafa is a lazy guy. If our government is hardworking, why need to hire PwC to research on TPP's impact? Why can't our government set up a team locally to do the analysis? And why M'sia hire a US firm to do the research? Isn't the outcome expected to be bias? This is a risk on M'sia for signing the deal without much effort. Another good point that Sanya brought up is about the GDP% calculation using the NTM assumption! M'sia didn't really negotiated any NTM under TPP, I can only see Japan's negotiation documents. Nobody knows what's the NTM M'sia have on the table. I could have missed it, if anybody knows what it is, do inform me!

The Speculation

The national treatment interpretation is misleading by saying member cannot ammend the law. Example in Singapore, ammendments are frequent. To ammend the law in a fair for foreigners doesn't mean you cannot ammend the law. Her way of presenting this point is speculative, and it dissapointed me when a legal expert presented the national treatment clause that way. I lose a bit respect of her becasue of that. There are many ways to have fair rules and regualation, at the same time, ensure the local small players able to compete with the foreign mega enterprises. It really depends on our own policy makers. 

Let's look at the example of IP law in Singapore. We all have to enforce national treatment clause under TRIPS agreement. However, Singapore government started a lot of temporary measures to encourge the locals to register their IP. While in M'sia, this method might not work. Why? Let say if the government gave a fund to encourage the locals to register their IP, I bet! I bet that 50% of that fund will ended up in some politician's personal bank account!

Conclusion

No conclusion by now, tomorrow I'll analyse the next part of her video.

World War 3?

I started to notice some crazy online posts about the possibility of World War 3 in 2016 which could be sparked by US vs Russia vs Iran vs Saudi Arabia oil price war. Well, I let my horrible imagination run wild...

It could be ignited by ISIS! So the nuke deal is in, and Iran finally gets what they want. Saudi is not happy with it and they might continue to compete with them. With the price of oil getting lower and lower, the inventory getting higher and higher, and the ISIS unable to ripe resources to support their agenda... they finally send suicide bombers to the oil inventory facilities around the world and then BOOM! The Armageddon has arrived! 

Ok, ok... I have to be very careful of what I'm blogging... especially it is about ISIS. They are now in Southeast Asia. Let's just pray that WW3 will never come... Peace!

FF13 Fans is gonna kill Nicolas Ghesquière for THIS!

Seriously?! I hate it with the deepest of my heart! As a big fan of Final Fantasy series, especially for my favourite character, Lightning of FF13. Nicolas Ghesquière had ruined it! Totally, extreamyly UGLY! This is perhaps the worst Louis Vuitton series ever! I can’t believe that Nomura-Sensei allow this to happen!

Ugly Chanel-Wannabe

All their Go-14 Malletage looks like an ugly version of Chanel’s Flap. The design is poorly done!

The Design Could Meant for Sailormoon

Seriously?! That pink coat and head piece reminds me of Sailormoon! It is totally not for Lightning!

It is not Cool or Sexy

Most of the fans love Lightning for her cool and sexy image which Ghesquière failed to bring it out.

Conclusion?! Sailormoon could be a better candidate for Series 4. If I really want to put Lightning on the catwalk, she should model for Armani, Prada or Tom Ford. I refuse to put those ugly photos on my blog. I hope it disappear! They ruined my love for Lightning. 

Ok, not all the Series 4 images are bad. I dislike the pink coat and Go-14 Malletage, All of them not cool and sexy, some still acceptable. I still dislike LV though. They should have fired Ghesquière!

Sweet Sweet Patents: Afrezza

After the sudden drop of MNKD which brought my attention to Afrezza, I can't stop following it's speculative news over the Stocktwits. I've blog about it previously, which I think this product is great. Licensing this product to Sanofi is probably the worst decision Alfred Mann could make. I still couldn't explain why an experienced entrepenuer who have so many succesful businesses in the past could make such a mistake.

May be it is not a mistake after all. Without such significant drop, the company and the product might not get such great attention. I myself get to know this product after the huge slump. Their patents are really valuable enough for Sanofi to kill it while it still young. 

As a person who understand diabetes, no one will deny this product is great. I have a diabetic dad, and have met lots of aunties uncles with diabetes. The fact is, non of them likes to poke themselves with needles. Especailly they are old and clumsy and accident prone! Therefore, Afrezza should be the best alternative. Unfortunately it is not available in my country. Which is sad. 

Marketing a pharmaceutical product can never be easy. I did understand that there's rules and regulations in different countries. Therefore I totally understand why MannKind need Sanofi to reach into the market. Unfortunately, Sanofi is the worst choice! Why not negotiate a deal with Pfizer, or Novartis... etc. May be they had done that, but still, working togather with the biggest competitor is not a wise idea.

So what's next for MannKind? Probably the best action is to retail Afrezza! Make it widely known or may be work togather with retail drugstores. I strongly believe this product is great. D*mn, if I have the money I will offer to buy over their patents. LOL.

Stange Things Happened!

I just realized a strange thing happened yesterday after the trading hours. Some strange Rich Man/Woman/Robot could have bought 600k unit of MNKD with $1.4543. Which is totally unexplainable. May be it is a plot to boost the market price. 

2016 Global Economic Crisis! pt.3: PANIC!

It is clear that the Chinese people are in the panic mode! Today, the market halted for the second time since Monday. They have no choice but to impose a selling ban. This is the time when market went into a situation where it doesn't make sense.

Oil price drop should have good impact on Chinese manufacturing business. However, it doesn't seems helping them much. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia increase the crude oil price in Asia for the coming Febuary, which is the month of the great migration in China. It really doesn't help to boost any industry either.

I've mentioned about the Kiasi and Kiasu spirit of the Chinese in my previous blog post. Here, I want to blog about the superstition of Chinese people.

What kind of superstition? We Chinese believe in many supernatural power. Feng Shui, Zodiac... etc. For the modern Chinese, we do study and analyze the history, and make a conclusion by our own. Then, we believe in that conclusion and act upon it. 

Many people believe that every 7 to 8 years, there will be a huge economical crisis. It coulb be called the Jubilee, or every 2 terms of US president... etc. Therefore, regardless of facts and figures, or may be it is due to the figures, they will still act upon their assumption.

There are reasons why the manufacturing activity reduced... upgrade of economic activity! Yes, that's the reason. Nowadays, when China no longer cheap, people have to pay more to the Chinese workers to get a better life. However, the sad fact is, consumer loves cheap stuffs. Compare the more expensive Made in China stuffs with a cheaper  Made in Bangladesh stuffs, consumer will just get the cheaper stuff. They don't care if the Bangladeshi workers are mistreated.

Therefore, 2016 will be a though year for China. This is a bad Monkey year!

Money Come Come Come! Meow!

When Great Product Meet Wrong Managment

This company named MannKind came into my attention after the drop of it's price of 45.86% today. I was doing a research on why this company ended up in such fate. Then I learn about their product...

Holy c***! Inhalable insulin!? Why i never heard of such thing before?!

My dad had type 2 diabetes for over 20 years. He just switched to Sanofi pen recently (from taking Acarbose). Since he is old, he got a lot of trouble when he start using the pen. Now, it came into my worry when I plan for his trip to oversea (flight). Although there should be very little concern about carrying the pen throught the airport. 

Look, nobody likes to poke something into their own skin! If I know there's such thing as Insulin Inhaler, I would use it instead of the injection pen! Seriously! The disposal of the needle is troublesome, and I always need to make sure my mom didn't get hurt when disposing it. 

Therefore, this product called Afrezza, which is an insulin inhaler, strike my attention. When I read the earning data of MannKind, I was shocked. How could it be? There are so many diabetes patients in this world and insulin is the best medicine known! The only obstacle for the diabetes patients to access insulin is becasue it involves injection. Such product suppose to shake the world and it is totally revoluntionary for the diabetes patients!

The problem is, how could this product did badly in their sales?

Wrong Partner

Mannkind had clearly selected the wrong partner. Of course Sanofi is the giant in diabetes medicine industry. However, if I'm Sanofi, I would just take the partnership deal, and kill the product silently until the day when the patents expire. Why? Because it will kill the sales of the pen, the needles which is the main prodcut held by Sanofi! To make things short, I won't help my potential competitor. It's either you offer me super cheap price to take up your patent, or you'll face the challenge! This is how the giant pharmaceutical company survive! Get real, MannKind!

Very Little Marketing

Is this Afrezza a new product? Nope. And there are people never heard of it! When I google about it, there's only a few youtube videos review about it. It doesn't seem like a proper marketing. May be MannKind is a small company, that it doesn't have the capability to market a product like how Pfizer, GSK, Sanofi does. 

If I am the CEO

MARKETING! That's the key! Get all out! Make everyone aware of it! It's clear that the existing CEO is trying to make an easy way out by partnership with Sanofi. Well, there's no easy business in this world! And because of the recent termination of that contract with Sanofi, it might mark a correct path for MannKind, but the future might be tough for MannKind.

I wish I can get the Afrezza inhaler for my dad if it available in my country. I bet every diabetes patients want this product too! Therefore, MannKind, please survive for the goodness of mankind!

Disclaimer: I have bought 100 unit of MNKD for the support of their product. This is a high risk investment which I might not get back any of my investment if the company gets delisted. However, I do have a strong hope that this product to be available around the world to benefits all the diabetes patients. I call it a non-profit investment. It would be a blessing if it does profitable in the future,

2016 Global Economic Crisis! pt.2: Blood Bath 满江红

Last year, I wrote an article on my thoughts about why 2016 is going to be a year of economic crisis, here. The horror just happened! Today, the Shanghai Index showered with blood over weak manufacturing data.

I do have a lot of trashes I wanna throw about the Chinese investors. Generally, I believe that most of us do have strong gamblers mindset. Therefore, most Chinese investors believe in myths, feng shui, luck and etc. We tend to follow the crowd, and very less likely to analyse something by ourselves. Therefore, we are tend to create a snowball effect.

When the market is doing good, we tend to go all in, because we "kiasu", scared of loosing that fresh piece of pie. When the market started to go not so well, we pull off, becasue we generally "kiasi", scared of losing big. Therefore, Chinese investors are generally dictated by fear. Generally are the fear of not earning more than others, which is "greed". And also fear of losing big. 

As most of the people in the financial market knows that the element of greed and fear is the evil factor which will cause all the disaster and financial crisis. It is clear, when you compare a western gambler to chinese gambler. You'll notice that the western gambler bet and play for fun, and still able to pull himself off once he was satisfied by the excitement he is looking for. However, the chinese gambler bet and play, expecting a sure win result, get himself deeper and deeper into the trap, until he loses all he have.

2016 just mark the beginning of the crisis. Lets pray.