2016 Global Economic Crisis!!!

The dooms day is here! Welcome 2016 Global Economic Crisis! Uncle aunties will scream! There are reasons why 2016 could be the worst year ahead! Believe me! I'm the ultimate prophet! Pay me RM2.6bil cash and I'll tell you the greatest prophecy of 2016! My Force is greater than Raja Bomoh!

Ok, enough of the trashes above. So what makes me think that 2016 could be a bad year?

Oil Price

If you've been following news about the current crude oil price, you should have noticed that the recent slump had reached the the low similar to year 1997-98. Well, the current economy is very different compare to years ago. While the US economy in 1997-98 were known to be in good condition, the economic structure are very different nowadays. Many people had pour their investment in the oil and gas industries due to greed. 3 years ago, a lot of university students are getting themselves into the oil and gas engineering degree. Those who already working, lay their extra cash in this industry. People use to be envy about the Middle Easterners who shows off their luxurious "throphies".Therefore, the oil and gas industry has been well invested. Now, the oil slump had caused many greedy people, from the middle to the upper middle income group, suffer a great lost in their investment! Not to mention the students who had spend 4 years just to get into this industry, now realized that they can't even get a job of have to gave up their "getting rich" dream. 

Therefore, it is clear, and evident, that whenever the oil price of the day drops, most of the market around the world will go down. Ta-daaa! Because they all have a piece of investment in the oil industry! That's they key! Now, prepare for the worst yet to come!

El-Nino

Human have a natural instinct to stay prepare for the worst. With the recent effect of El-Nino, people started to prepare, not just for food and shelter, also economically. With the weather getting warmer and less energy be used. (In Malaysia, it is different. When the days are warm, we switch on the air-conditioner to cool down and stay indoor.) This could cause a snowball effect on the oil price. 

US Presidential Election

2016 election will be the major news around the world! There always something fishy happens during the election year. Economic crisis just happened during the time of presidential election when the current president is near end of term. For example in year 2009. I just feel like some secret society behind is actually playing with the economy to push people to vote for the opposition party.

Oh well... That's my trashes for today. :P

Oil Again: If I'm the Procurement Manager.

With the United States and Iranian oil gets into the market. Saudi Arabia and Russia are getting prepared to face the lower oil price. This situation is like how my mom go to get her fishes to make her fish balls for her hawker stall business.

In the wet market, there were more than 5 fish mongers selling different species of fishes specific for the purpose of making fish ball. It could be Wolf Hering, Mackerel or Yellow Snapper. However, in order to have best quality fishball, she mixed the fishes in her specified secret porpotion. 

All fish mongers selling 3 types of fishes. Each of them caught 100kg of fishes everyday each species. However, my mom only need 10kg for each species. in order to maintain diplomatic relationship and diversify her option, she bought fishes from all 5 fish mongers for 2kg each. 

The fish mongers may ask my mom to buy more from them and they'll give special price. However, to buy the fishes from a single monger could be as risky as putting the eggs in one basket. One day, that particular fish monger might get sick and unable to provide fishes for a few days. Without a good relaitonship with other fish mongers, my mom might not get a good deal from them.

Therefore, in such situation, oil import is also a serious diplomatic decision. We all know which country supplies the cheapest oil. However, it is also important to diversify the supply from different countries. If one day, Saudi Arabia suddenly taken over by ISIS and they refuse to sell any of their oil to countries which was their enemies, and the market was so dependent on those cheap oil, it would be a disaster. 

Therefore, a wise oil and gas import export minister or company manager will always have their eggs in different baskets. The lowered price might be some tasty sweets for the greedy people. A real wise leader will not be easily sign a long term contract just because someone offers a better deal.

Oil Price: Do you smelllllll, what the boys are speculating?

When people always complaint about girls, claiming that women are more prone to making up stories, gossips...etc. The boys are doing it too, but in a way which can be easily busted! I came across too many news reports on oil price which is heavily misleading. It is clear that most institution is trying to brought down the oil price. I don't know their intention, but it is quite annoying.

Let's analyse the latest example:

This is the link of the article: Link

And below is the printscreen I captured on 25 December 2015. Do read the highlighted text. The report had repeated an important line on the message it tries to impose.

The funny thing is, lets investigate it further from the IMF. I've check the above mentioned IMF report to understand further on the issue. Here is the link to the IMF report: Link. Below is the printscreen I captured on 25 December 2015.

I feel suspicious, what is the intention behind such speculation? Is it a heroic act to kill the ISIS's illegal oil trade? Or there's a greater evil behind? I wish to know the answer. And I know that nobody gonna let me know the answer. 

My "Theory" on Crude Oil Price: Prediction Vs Facts

I need to clarify that I am not in the oil and gas industry. Whatever I blog about are just my trash! I will not responsible for your lost in your investment! :P

Prediction Vs Facts

The United States Energy Information Administration predicted in 2006 that world consumption of oil will increase to 98.3mb/d (15,630,000 m3/d) (mbd) in 2015. The fact according to OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report dated September 2015, as per to the date of their record, the consumption rate is at 92.79mb/d. The consumption rate forecast for 2016 will be lowered due to the slow down of economic activities and rising of renewable energy sector.

Set aside all the market factors, let us take a deep look at behind the science of oil production. Similar to any commodity, the earth resources are finite. I grew up in Kampar, Perak, which was once a famous tin mining town rich of natural tin resource. Nowadays, the town no longer produce enough tin for the industry. All we left were the emptied abandoned ponds of water. Therefore, I realize the fact that if the rate of harvesting the natural resources are higher than the reproduction rate, one day, the resources will be all gone, used up, and left emptied.

The World's natural oil supply is fixed because petroleum is naturally formed far too slowly to be replaced at the rate at which it is being extracted. - Wikipedia

Therefore, let us take a closer look at the chart below. If we assume that the oil production is irrelavant to market price and global events, naturally, the Hubbert theory should be applied. Due to the new recovery technology, we now able to boost the production of the oil, which causes a sharp rise of the production which violates Hubbert's theory. 

And The Crystal Ball Saids

It is abnormal to see such chart pattern. The sharp rise of the production may also signal that there could be a sharp fall when the oil field is at its end of production life.The recent mainstream news had focused too much on the market, the price and the OPEC. It is the fact that most human only care about money making, but they never realized the end of oil age is near. What happened now, with the global oil price slump, is actually beneficial to the oil consuming countries such as United States. The increase of their oil inventory is a smart move. They collect as much as they can to prepare for the coming end of their own oil field. 

The Iran Deal?

The real reason behind the Iran deal could be more than what we had expected. Just imagine when United States no longer able to produce enough crude oil, and once again, they had to depend on major producers such as Saudi Arabia. The Americans are smarter than that! Lets open this can of worms! There has been significant development on the re-newable energy sector. Other than that, the solar, wind or biofuel might not be enough to feed the power hungry nation. Furthermore, there are many other products which were produced by petroleum. Therefore, to have good terms with the 4th largest oil reserve country is a smart move to gaurantee some great deal in the future. 

Store The Cheap Oil Now

The oil inventory is growing every week. If the future oil price will go lower in price after the Iran sanction lifted, then why store it if you already know that it's going to be cheaper tomorrow. The "Theory" is, they want to store it because they don't know when they are going to ran out of oil! It could happened anytime, any year. The oil field could just suddenly emptied. They don't want the huge oil producers to know that! Therefore, the price is always speculated to the down side. 

Conclusion

I'm just trashing! :P stay cool and enjoy!

Living in Lies, Surrounded by Liars!

Some Church are full of liars. It is about how you want to live and survive in it. The fact that the power within a Church is pure peer pressure. Should I be the person who let the liar continue to influence the young minds? No! For sure.

I attended a talk about LGBT in a traditional church, where the speaker spread lies to the younger generations. I was so furious that I choose to use open confrontation tactics to counter the speaker. Of course I have thought about whether to become the nice person or the bad person, I chose to grab attention!

My audiences are the youngster, not the speaker! There is no point to correct the speaker and left the youngsters received the wrong information. This is the scenario. Should I keep quiet until the end of the talk and go talk to the speaker personally about her misleading information? Or should I grab the attention of all the youngster and have that final opportunity to gather them to listen to my point even though they might not have good impression on me anymore?

That’s the main question. I don’t want to let the youngster go back with wrong information planted in their minds. I want them to have doubts, to investigate it by themselves, to discover the truth. Not to blindly download the information from the speaker.

A lot of times, it is the pressure of the society that imposed fear on LGBT. One may choose to stay in the closet and remain in celibacy just because the work place and the church community against the concept. It is purely an act of pleasing people, not God. The feeling of guilty being LGBT, were imposed by those people who are close and being nice, but failed to understand the scripture.

Therefore, the heterosexual, homophobic church members are the ones who need more education. Some of them not even understand the scripture at all. When they able to pick and quote the particular scripture as against LGBT, they unable to pick and quote other scripture to explain about love and equality. Therefore, it is clear that those church leaders had been trained particularly to oppose the concept of love, and they were so shallow in the knowledge of the Bible. They follow blindly on what they receive the information from, without further investigate the truth of it. They willing to spread false witness against other churches and condemn others without evidence and truth.

We need to change! They are not true Christians!

Success? Break up!

A friend told me about a film, which I've failed to google search the title. The story of that film goes something like this: A man and a woman, who were in a relationship. The man is a writer and the woman is a dancer. They lived a struggled life, and one day, the writer's talent fot discovered and he become successful. Whereas the dancer is still struggling in her dancing career. She gets emotional and lost her self esteem. She started to envy of her boyfriend's success. In the end of the movie, they broke up.

Will you leave your spouse during his/her tough times which he/she unable to get through it by his/herself? Or you will find a way to help him/her to go through it no matter how much you sacrifice your own benefits?

Life is full of ups and downs, if a man unwilling to go through that down season of a woman, that relationship will not last long. I want to write about my mom and dad's story about their hard times. There was a time when my dad was so addicted on gambling, that my mom had made a decision to move to another place. She told my dad to leave his gambler friends and go somewhere new to start a new life. So my dad did chase after her and he ended his gambling habit.

The difficult time doesn't just end there, My dad got diabetes and need cardiovascular operation, he got very sick. Since he no longer eligible for insurance, my mom has to borrow money from her relatives to pay for the surgery. 

This is the real example of love. Both will not give up during the difficult time. Sometimes, outsiders might say it is not fair for my mom. Things cannot be judged by its surface. Sometimes, my friends will tell me they really envy of my parent's because they still holding hands, my dad sometimes still "kacao kacao" joking with my mom, they still sleeping on the same bed...etc. The conclusion is, how much you had sacrificed, you will get back more of it. Some old couple not even speak to their spouse. Some not even holding hands. Some no longer sleeping next to each other... 

Younger couples nowadays are less resilient towards difficult times. I have to admit that. If one party unwilling to find a solution for the trouble of hisher spouse. That's the end of it. A relationship is about both parties. If one party unwilling to go through the tough times with his/her spouse, it's not going to work. That goes to that successful writter who gave up the relationship. 

My mom could have just leave my dad during his gambling habit time. That way, she might not need to suffer the financial troubles which my dad had brought into the family. And she may not have to go through all the troubles of taking care of my sick dad. That supposed to be an easy way out. All those financial security is worthless, compare to holding the hands of someone she loves. This is how she values a relationship. And my dad didn't have to chase after her that time when he was into gambling. There were examples of others where the husband will beat the wife and continue gamble. Therefore I say it is all about both parties. My dad must willing to change himself. One thing good about him, he never lay hands on my mom.

How you value a relationship? Will you willing to g through all the difficult time with your partner even though it is not going to be fair for you? In the end, no relationship will be fair because one of the person will always have to go first and left the other one alone. It is about being togather that matters.

For that writer who unwilling to go through the tough time with his girlfriend. 

Charles & Keith VS Coach VS Kate Spade

I'm not a fashion expert, but recently had an investment in this industry. I was curious on how fast a fashion industry move and how it able to make a woman spend their entire salary on it. Back then, people were crazy about Longchamp. Later, Coach. At the lower price tag range, there are Charles & Keith.

Shopping Experience

Managing of a fashion brand is really important for the life and death of that particular brand. Who wants to pay for thousands if that particular shop design like pasar malam? I realized that recently, the new Coach boutique had adopt the open concept. The way they display their product is totally hazardous! They lay their latest Swagger bags the way like selling iphones? Which is a bad idea, it makes the bag looks cheap. While the shops that give best shopping experience will be Charles & Keith. They sprayed iconic perfume around their shop, with fashion forward cat-walk musics playing. Good lighting effect on the products... etc... It is so tempting for the consumer to make a wrong decision to buy their products. I have to be honest, I bought a C&K bag and I feel deeply regret because the feel of it just isn't same as the time I tested it in the boutique. Most importantly, the staffs! Probably the Coach staffs still thinks that their brand is so prestige that they often neglecting those plain dressing customers like myself. Staff at C&K and Kate Spade are friendlier and helpful.

Products

I just mentioned about C&K's products for its fast dying designs. I may love one design today, but I might hate it tomorrow. Therefore I will always think 3 to 4 times before I want to spend my money on C&K. I had too many regrets, now I'm looking for an opportunity to sell away my C&Ks. Do check out my Carousell. Whereas for the Coach products, it is just too simple and plain. Kate Spade do have some great designs like Stevie. Their product last longer and I never regretted every KS purchases. Furthermore, they have a lot of strange and cute clutches which is very difficult to be counterfeited and worth collecting.

Dying Fashion

Fashion industry moves faster than any other industries known to this days. I really like Cath Kidston 2 years ago, but now I'm sick of it! A Vietnam brand named Cuteshop were once very popular, but now is dying. It seems like only the high end luxury brands would be able to survive? I don't think so! Furla Candy bag and Balenciaga were some example of dying fashion.

Conclusion

Fashion is not my game! LOL... I still love Kate Spade for this time being and I don't know when I'll get sick of it. Let's just see what it will do in future.