My Investment: MNKD

So it has been some time after I gambled 100 unit of MNKD at $0.65 per share and I earned a few dollars for that after I sell at at $0.93. Now I fully regretted that I sold the shares, it's $1.33 today! I've blogged about it previously: here.

Well, ever since I discover this company, I always wonder why Sanofi suddenly terminates the contract for such  a revolutionary new drug. I do have plan to re-invest (with larger investment capital) into MNKD. Since I planned to invest larger, I did some study on it's financial reports. The result, it isn't pretty at all!

So MNKD was a pure R&D company who had spend over 10 years to come out with Afrezza and when they finally get the FDA approval and a deal with Sanofi, they expect to start earning profit from the sale. Unfortunately, Sanofi changed their mind and canceled the contract. Without any backup plan, and with the sudden left of the company founder Alfred Mann, the company is now lead by a not so competent CEO Matt, with very little cash left and uncertainties kicks in.

This company is in deep deep trouble! 

Meyer Rothschild: "Buy when there is blood on the streets."

So now should be a great time to buy this company since I believe in it's product. But wait! Why Sanofi suddenly canceled the deal if it's such a great thing? There are many conspiracy theories and rumors among the investors and traders speculating about the real reason behind the cancellation, here are some of them:

1. Official Reason: Weak Sales

This is the official reason given by Sanofi. They claimed that they had put the best effort and the sales are still weak. Well, I doubt that it's real. I believe that the reason for weak sale is because it's still new and it's not well marketed. I haven't even heard of such product until I discover this company share price turned penny. 

2. Change of Sanofi's CEO

So Chris Viehbacher has been fired by Sanofi's BoD, the new CEO Olivier Brandicourt leadership style is totally different! Some said that Brandicourt view Afrezza as a potential treat to they company's core product and should not be supported by the company. Therefore, Sanofi made a decision to cancel the deal.

3. Fear of Recall

Sanofi earnings was deeply affected by the recent recall of their Auvi-Q product. Which is the main trigger for Brandicourt to cancel the deal in fear of any un-foreseen problem with Afrezza. His fear is almost Luddite! I would say, if this is true, this almost an insult to FDA which had rejected and delayed their approval for Afrezza previously to ensure its safety. FDA have been working on it since 2010! Furthermore, Auvi-Q's failure is a mechanical failure, it has nothing to do with Afrezza.

Kiasi Is My Culture!

Because I'm kinda worried about the point number 3, I did some homework reading on Fumaryl Diketopiperazine (FDKP). Just copy and paste the name and search it on Google, plenty of research papers available. From the ones by MannKind, also with those from independent scholars. I think it is a new use of this particle, but it is pretty convincing that there won't be any significant side effect in short to medium term. 

It is not just Afrezza

The key value of MNKD is not just Afrezza. Technosphere is the key! Many other drugs can be delivered with this technology. It is the key to open up new medication delivery method. Therefore, to sell Afrezza is just a short term plan to get the company out of the financial trouble. The R&D team still have this fancy TS toy to play with and make magic. I'm pretty convinced that this company can grow big.

I have position in this company! You do your own evaluation, I didn't ask you to buy or sell MNKD. It's up to you, you gotta do your own homework!

Be an Informed Opponent of TPP, Not a Speculative One! Part 2&3

Part 2&3 of Sanya's presentation is about the biggest Modern Days Trojan Horse -- Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS). There is NO DOUBT that ISDS is the greatest trap by US. They even stated that in their own USTR website. Therefore, it is not a secret US world economic domination agenda. It is clearly, an agenda to take advantages of the members who signed it. If you browse the USTR web, it literally tells you that:

"Because of the safeguards in U.S. agreements and because of the high standards of our legal system, foreign investors rarely pursue arbitration against the United States and have never been successful when they have done so. "

Therefore, the point presented by Sanya is a valid point. The main question is, why other countries, such as New zealand, Australia, Mexico... etc, willing to receive this Trojan Horse? They all know about the history and the consequences (NAFTA is the best example).

The Illusion: More Texts Doesn't Mean Better
There are several examples raised by Sanya, all of them are under different sets of treaties. The Occidental v. Ecuador case rule under US-Ecuador BIT. While the "US always win" cases are under NAFTA.

Looking at the nature of the TPP as a regional FTA, the Chapter 9 is full of exceptions and annexes for each countries, providing different protection for the parties. This created a false sense of security for those who read the agreement. After I read the Chp9, I do feel that it is not a problem signing this agreement. However, this is very naive of me.

TPP Chp9 has a lot of similarity to NAFTA Chp11. Where the chapter seems good and fair, the real implementation and execution is not. Here comes the "US always win" and "Canada always dismissed" situation. The agreement isn't fair at all. Although TPP Chp9 included a lot of exceptions, it appears to be vague. The US investors still have plenty of rooms to make troubles if they like.

Conclusion
For the part 2 and 3, Sanya did brought up the biggest concern on TPP, the ISDS! While the texts did seems great, it only works for countries with strong legal system. Then why 'the hell' Malaysia want to sign this agreement?

Without prejudice to a claimant’s right to submit other claims to arbitration pursuant to Article 9.18 (Submission of a Claim to Arbitration), Malaysia does not consent to the submission of a claim that Malaysia has breached a government procurement contract with a covered investment, below the specified contract value, for a period of three years after the date of entry into force of this Agreement for Malaysia. The specified contract values are: (a) for goods, SDR 1,500,000; (b) for services, SDR 2,000,000; and (c) for construction, SDR 63,000,000. ~ (Annex 9-K, Chapter 9, TPP)

Dear Malaysian, are you now understand the reason why our current government agree upon such agreement? Our former PM Abdullah had turned down the similar agreement years ago, why now our current PM Najib support such agreement? It seems like "Hey, bro, I want your trojan horse but please send it to me only after 3 years!". Just let your imagination run wild! Tell me what will happen in Malaysia after 3 years?

The Intellectual Property Chapter
I will blog about IP chapter tomorrow since I do have different views on it. 

Be an Informed Opponent of TPP, Not a Speculative One! Part 1

Warning: Personal point of views. As the title of my blog, this is Trash Talk.

Yesterday I finally got some free time watching this recording of Sanya Reid Smith presenting her opposing views on TPP. To be frank, I felt discomfort after watching the first part of the video. I find it speculative and misleading. I posted a facebook post about it after that to voice my concern. However, I do feel that I need to further blog about it to place more solid facts on this.

My Stance

I am 50% supportive of TPP, with the condition that RCEP signed successfully. I believe that both are inter-related as a form of international political agenda by two major powerhouses: United States and China. Therefore, it is important for Malaysia to have both position. If RCEP is not going to be successful, TPP could be a huge trap (It can happen just like how US turn AMF into a junk). However, if RCEP is going to be signed, TPP can be a form of defence card against China. It is always safe for Malaysia to be in both TPP and RCEP. Either M'sia will survived being a hypocrite or get squeezed in between US and China. 

The Video
Watch the video to hear Sanya's views on TPP.

Part 1: 
The Bad Examples

At 3:19, she used an example of rice import. M'sia's BERNAS is the monopoly who got special license to import rice products without paying tariffs (license end 2016). Refer to Vengedasalam's study on M'sian rice trade, we do not produce enough rice for our own. Therefore, to have a free trade on rice is extremely important to ensure food adundance. Furthermore, rice is an important food source in M'sia, if M'sia impose tariff on it, of course the government will earn a lot, but we will starve becasue we do not have the ability to fullfil our own need! Her logic will only be true if more M'sian become rice farmers, which is a bad idea for an industrailized country. Furthermore, to ship the rice from US to M'sia had increased it's costs compare to locally produced rice. No matter how much subsidies the US government gave to their farmers, if they export their rice, their subsidies came along with it. I don't think US could be that stupid to do so.

Palm oil & Indonesia is another super bad example. How could M'sia palm oil goes into Indonesia when Indonesia increases it's export tax? I can't get the logic. Indonesia is the largest palm producer n their production exceeding their own need n they never import palm oil! If Indonesia really did increase their export tax, it actually gained M'sia a better position in the market because palm oil from Malaysia will be cheaper. Furthermore, the exclusive nature of TPP had put the original members in a more disadvantage position according to Pradumna's study. If Indonesia decided to join later, they will have to get along with the original members. That's what had happened to Japan, where they have to met a lot of pre-conditions in order to get into TPP negotiations according to Kelsey.

Wrong Tarriff-Elimination Schedule Information: 4y More, Not 14y!
I don't blame her for getting it wrong. The document is 200+ pages long and she had picked a bad example: rice! Msia's rice tariff schedule is in B11 stage, 11 years to zero-tariff. While US's rice tariff schedule for Msia is in B5 stage, 5 years to zero-tariff. Therefore, the number is a tricky one to play with.

Furthermore, the max 30 years tariff schedule from US are items listed in the catagory US17 and US24. There were only 40 items under US17 cat, and 58 items under US24. Majority of the items are only enforced for Canada and New Zealand. I can't find any US17 or US24 imposed to Malaysia in the US tariff schedule. For Msia, the maximum tariff schedule is US23 cat, 20 years on cane sugar. Therefore, check the fact before taking this point. 

The Good Example

The only good example is on the scraps materials. Recycling based industries are never that green and clean. Sometimes, it could be toxic. It is possible that some developed countries are looking for a way to get rid of their trashes, using the holistic name of "recycling" and get back the recycled materials. India is the best example! It has been known that the US exported their obsolete trashes there for the purpose of recycling to get the metals. The process is in India, therefore, all those toxic wastes, gases, will be in India, and they will get back the clean recycled final products which are metals. Fishy indeed. That is the best evidence to oppose TPP.

The Strongest Point

Great point about the exception list. Mustafa is a lazy guy. If our government is hardworking, why need to hire PwC to research on TPP's impact? Why can't our government set up a team locally to do the analysis? And why M'sia hire a US firm to do the research? Isn't the outcome expected to be bias? This is a risk on M'sia for signing the deal without much effort. Another good point that Sanya brought up is about the GDP% calculation using the NTM assumption! M'sia didn't really negotiated any NTM under TPP, I can only see Japan's negotiation documents. Nobody knows what's the NTM M'sia have on the table. I could have missed it, if anybody knows what it is, do inform me!

The Speculation

The national treatment interpretation is misleading by saying member cannot ammend the law. Example in Singapore, ammendments are frequent. To ammend the law in a fair for foreigners doesn't mean you cannot ammend the law. Her way of presenting this point is speculative, and it dissapointed me when a legal expert presented the national treatment clause that way. I lose a bit respect of her becasue of that. There are many ways to have fair rules and regualation, at the same time, ensure the local small players able to compete with the foreign mega enterprises. It really depends on our own policy makers. 

Let's look at the example of IP law in Singapore. We all have to enforce national treatment clause under TRIPS agreement. However, Singapore government started a lot of temporary measures to encourge the locals to register their IP. While in M'sia, this method might not work. Why? Let say if the government gave a fund to encourage the locals to register their IP, I bet! I bet that 50% of that fund will ended up in some politician's personal bank account!

Conclusion

No conclusion by now, tomorrow I'll analyse the next part of her video.

World War 3?

I started to notice some crazy online posts about the possibility of World War 3 in 2016 which could be sparked by US vs Russia vs Iran vs Saudi Arabia oil price war. Well, I let my horrible imagination run wild...

It could be ignited by ISIS! So the nuke deal is in, and Iran finally gets what they want. Saudi is not happy with it and they might continue to compete with them. With the price of oil getting lower and lower, the inventory getting higher and higher, and the ISIS unable to ripe resources to support their agenda... they finally send suicide bombers to the oil inventory facilities around the world and then BOOM! The Armageddon has arrived! 

Ok, ok... I have to be very careful of what I'm blogging... especially it is about ISIS. They are now in Southeast Asia. Let's just pray that WW3 will never come... Peace!

FF13 Fans is gonna kill Nicolas Ghesquière for THIS!

Seriously?! I hate it with the deepest of my heart! As a big fan of Final Fantasy series, especially for my favourite character, Lightning of FF13. Nicolas Ghesquière had ruined it! Totally, extreamyly UGLY! This is perhaps the worst Louis Vuitton series ever! I can’t believe that Nomura-Sensei allow this to happen!

Ugly Chanel-Wannabe

All their Go-14 Malletage looks like an ugly version of Chanel’s Flap. The design is poorly done!

The Design Could Meant for Sailormoon

Seriously?! That pink coat and head piece reminds me of Sailormoon! It is totally not for Lightning!

It is not Cool or Sexy

Most of the fans love Lightning for her cool and sexy image which Ghesquière failed to bring it out.

Conclusion?! Sailormoon could be a better candidate for Series 4. If I really want to put Lightning on the catwalk, she should model for Armani, Prada or Tom Ford. I refuse to put those ugly photos on my blog. I hope it disappear! They ruined my love for Lightning. 

Ok, not all the Series 4 images are bad. I dislike the pink coat and Go-14 Malletage, All of them not cool and sexy, some still acceptable. I still dislike LV though. They should have fired Ghesquière!

Sweet Sweet Patents: Afrezza

After the sudden drop of MNKD which brought my attention to Afrezza, I can't stop following it's speculative news over the Stocktwits. I've blog about it previously, which I think this product is great. Licensing this product to Sanofi is probably the worst decision Alfred Mann could make. I still couldn't explain why an experienced entrepenuer who have so many succesful businesses in the past could make such a mistake.

May be it is not a mistake after all. Without such significant drop, the company and the product might not get such great attention. I myself get to know this product after the huge slump. Their patents are really valuable enough for Sanofi to kill it while it still young. 

As a person who understand diabetes, no one will deny this product is great. I have a diabetic dad, and have met lots of aunties uncles with diabetes. The fact is, non of them likes to poke themselves with needles. Especailly they are old and clumsy and accident prone! Therefore, Afrezza should be the best alternative. Unfortunately it is not available in my country. Which is sad. 

Marketing a pharmaceutical product can never be easy. I did understand that there's rules and regulations in different countries. Therefore I totally understand why MannKind need Sanofi to reach into the market. Unfortunately, Sanofi is the worst choice! Why not negotiate a deal with Pfizer, or Novartis... etc. May be they had done that, but still, working togather with the biggest competitor is not a wise idea.

So what's next for MannKind? Probably the best action is to retail Afrezza! Make it widely known or may be work togather with retail drugstores. I strongly believe this product is great. D*mn, if I have the money I will offer to buy over their patents. LOL.

Stange Things Happened!

I just realized a strange thing happened yesterday after the trading hours. Some strange Rich Man/Woman/Robot could have bought 600k unit of MNKD with $1.4543. Which is totally unexplainable. May be it is a plot to boost the market price. 

2016 Global Economic Crisis! pt.3: PANIC!

It is clear that the Chinese people are in the panic mode! Today, the market halted for the second time since Monday. They have no choice but to impose a selling ban. This is the time when market went into a situation where it doesn't make sense.

Oil price drop should have good impact on Chinese manufacturing business. However, it doesn't seems helping them much. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia increase the crude oil price in Asia for the coming Febuary, which is the month of the great migration in China. It really doesn't help to boost any industry either.

I've mentioned about the Kiasi and Kiasu spirit of the Chinese in my previous blog post. Here, I want to blog about the superstition of Chinese people.

What kind of superstition? We Chinese believe in many supernatural power. Feng Shui, Zodiac... etc. For the modern Chinese, we do study and analyze the history, and make a conclusion by our own. Then, we believe in that conclusion and act upon it. 

Many people believe that every 7 to 8 years, there will be a huge economical crisis. It coulb be called the Jubilee, or every 2 terms of US president... etc. Therefore, regardless of facts and figures, or may be it is due to the figures, they will still act upon their assumption.

There are reasons why the manufacturing activity reduced... upgrade of economic activity! Yes, that's the reason. Nowadays, when China no longer cheap, people have to pay more to the Chinese workers to get a better life. However, the sad fact is, consumer loves cheap stuffs. Compare the more expensive Made in China stuffs with a cheaper  Made in Bangladesh stuffs, consumer will just get the cheaper stuff. They don't care if the Bangladeshi workers are mistreated.

Therefore, 2016 will be a though year for China. This is a bad Monkey year!

Money Come Come Come! Meow!

When Great Product Meet Wrong Managment

This company named MannKind came into my attention after the drop of it's price of 45.86% today. I was doing a research on why this company ended up in such fate. Then I learn about their product...

Holy c***! Inhalable insulin!? Why i never heard of such thing before?!

My dad had type 2 diabetes for over 20 years. He just switched to Sanofi pen recently (from taking Acarbose). Since he is old, he got a lot of trouble when he start using the pen. Now, it came into my worry when I plan for his trip to oversea (flight). Although there should be very little concern about carrying the pen throught the airport. 

Look, nobody likes to poke something into their own skin! If I know there's such thing as Insulin Inhaler, I would use it instead of the injection pen! Seriously! The disposal of the needle is troublesome, and I always need to make sure my mom didn't get hurt when disposing it. 

Therefore, this product called Afrezza, which is an insulin inhaler, strike my attention. When I read the earning data of MannKind, I was shocked. How could it be? There are so many diabetes patients in this world and insulin is the best medicine known! The only obstacle for the diabetes patients to access insulin is becasue it involves injection. Such product suppose to shake the world and it is totally revoluntionary for the diabetes patients!

The problem is, how could this product did badly in their sales?

Wrong Partner

Mannkind had clearly selected the wrong partner. Of course Sanofi is the giant in diabetes medicine industry. However, if I'm Sanofi, I would just take the partnership deal, and kill the product silently until the day when the patents expire. Why? Because it will kill the sales of the pen, the needles which is the main prodcut held by Sanofi! To make things short, I won't help my potential competitor. It's either you offer me super cheap price to take up your patent, or you'll face the challenge! This is how the giant pharmaceutical company survive! Get real, MannKind!

Very Little Marketing

Is this Afrezza a new product? Nope. And there are people never heard of it! When I google about it, there's only a few youtube videos review about it. It doesn't seem like a proper marketing. May be MannKind is a small company, that it doesn't have the capability to market a product like how Pfizer, GSK, Sanofi does. 

If I am the CEO

MARKETING! That's the key! Get all out! Make everyone aware of it! It's clear that the existing CEO is trying to make an easy way out by partnership with Sanofi. Well, there's no easy business in this world! And because of the recent termination of that contract with Sanofi, it might mark a correct path for MannKind, but the future might be tough for MannKind.

I wish I can get the Afrezza inhaler for my dad if it available in my country. I bet every diabetes patients want this product too! Therefore, MannKind, please survive for the goodness of mankind!

Disclaimer: I have bought 100 unit of MNKD for the support of their product. This is a high risk investment which I might not get back any of my investment if the company gets delisted. However, I do have a strong hope that this product to be available around the world to benefits all the diabetes patients. I call it a non-profit investment. It would be a blessing if it does profitable in the future,

2016 Global Economic Crisis! pt.2: Blood Bath 满江红

Last year, I wrote an article on my thoughts about why 2016 is going to be a year of economic crisis, here. The horror just happened! Today, the Shanghai Index showered with blood over weak manufacturing data.

I do have a lot of trashes I wanna throw about the Chinese investors. Generally, I believe that most of us do have strong gamblers mindset. Therefore, most Chinese investors believe in myths, feng shui, luck and etc. We tend to follow the crowd, and very less likely to analyse something by ourselves. Therefore, we are tend to create a snowball effect.

When the market is doing good, we tend to go all in, because we "kiasu", scared of loosing that fresh piece of pie. When the market started to go not so well, we pull off, becasue we generally "kiasi", scared of losing big. Therefore, Chinese investors are generally dictated by fear. Generally are the fear of not earning more than others, which is "greed". And also fear of losing big. 

As most of the people in the financial market knows that the element of greed and fear is the evil factor which will cause all the disaster and financial crisis. It is clear, when you compare a western gambler to chinese gambler. You'll notice that the western gambler bet and play for fun, and still able to pull himself off once he was satisfied by the excitement he is looking for. However, the chinese gambler bet and play, expecting a sure win result, get himself deeper and deeper into the trap, until he loses all he have.

2016 just mark the beginning of the crisis. Lets pray.

2016 Global Economic Crisis!!!

The dooms day is here! Welcome 2016 Global Economic Crisis! Uncle aunties will scream! There are reasons why 2016 could be the worst year ahead! Believe me! I'm the ultimate prophet! Pay me RM2.6bil cash and I'll tell you the greatest prophecy of 2016! My Force is greater than Raja Bomoh!

Ok, enough of the trashes above. So what makes me think that 2016 could be a bad year?

Oil Price

If you've been following news about the current crude oil price, you should have noticed that the recent slump had reached the the low similar to year 1997-98. Well, the current economy is very different compare to years ago. While the US economy in 1997-98 were known to be in good condition, the economic structure are very different nowadays. Many people had pour their investment in the oil and gas industries due to greed. 3 years ago, a lot of university students are getting themselves into the oil and gas engineering degree. Those who already working, lay their extra cash in this industry. People use to be envy about the Middle Easterners who shows off their luxurious "throphies".Therefore, the oil and gas industry has been well invested. Now, the oil slump had caused many greedy people, from the middle to the upper middle income group, suffer a great lost in their investment! Not to mention the students who had spend 4 years just to get into this industry, now realized that they can't even get a job of have to gave up their "getting rich" dream. 

Therefore, it is clear, and evident, that whenever the oil price of the day drops, most of the market around the world will go down. Ta-daaa! Because they all have a piece of investment in the oil industry! That's they key! Now, prepare for the worst yet to come!

El-Nino

Human have a natural instinct to stay prepare for the worst. With the recent effect of El-Nino, people started to prepare, not just for food and shelter, also economically. With the weather getting warmer and less energy be used. (In Malaysia, it is different. When the days are warm, we switch on the air-conditioner to cool down and stay indoor.) This could cause a snowball effect on the oil price. 

US Presidential Election

2016 election will be the major news around the world! There always something fishy happens during the election year. Economic crisis just happened during the time of presidential election when the current president is near end of term. For example in year 2009. I just feel like some secret society behind is actually playing with the economy to push people to vote for the opposition party.

Oh well... That's my trashes for today. :P

Oil Again: If I'm the Procurement Manager.

With the United States and Iranian oil gets into the market. Saudi Arabia and Russia are getting prepared to face the lower oil price. This situation is like how my mom go to get her fishes to make her fish balls for her hawker stall business.

In the wet market, there were more than 5 fish mongers selling different species of fishes specific for the purpose of making fish ball. It could be Wolf Hering, Mackerel or Yellow Snapper. However, in order to have best quality fishball, she mixed the fishes in her specified secret porpotion. 

All fish mongers selling 3 types of fishes. Each of them caught 100kg of fishes everyday each species. However, my mom only need 10kg for each species. in order to maintain diplomatic relationship and diversify her option, she bought fishes from all 5 fish mongers for 2kg each. 

The fish mongers may ask my mom to buy more from them and they'll give special price. However, to buy the fishes from a single monger could be as risky as putting the eggs in one basket. One day, that particular fish monger might get sick and unable to provide fishes for a few days. Without a good relaitonship with other fish mongers, my mom might not get a good deal from them.

Therefore, in such situation, oil import is also a serious diplomatic decision. We all know which country supplies the cheapest oil. However, it is also important to diversify the supply from different countries. If one day, Saudi Arabia suddenly taken over by ISIS and they refuse to sell any of their oil to countries which was their enemies, and the market was so dependent on those cheap oil, it would be a disaster. 

Therefore, a wise oil and gas import export minister or company manager will always have their eggs in different baskets. The lowered price might be some tasty sweets for the greedy people. A real wise leader will not be easily sign a long term contract just because someone offers a better deal.

Oil Price: Do you smelllllll, what the boys are speculating?

When people always complaint about girls, claiming that women are more prone to making up stories, gossips...etc. The boys are doing it too, but in a way which can be easily busted! I came across too many news reports on oil price which is heavily misleading. It is clear that most institution is trying to brought down the oil price. I don't know their intention, but it is quite annoying.

Let's analyse the latest example:

This is the link of the article: Link

And below is the printscreen I captured on 25 December 2015. Do read the highlighted text. The report had repeated an important line on the message it tries to impose.

The funny thing is, lets investigate it further from the IMF. I've check the above mentioned IMF report to understand further on the issue. Here is the link to the IMF report: Link. Below is the printscreen I captured on 25 December 2015.

I feel suspicious, what is the intention behind such speculation? Is it a heroic act to kill the ISIS's illegal oil trade? Or there's a greater evil behind? I wish to know the answer. And I know that nobody gonna let me know the answer. 

My "Theory" on Crude Oil Price: Prediction Vs Facts

I need to clarify that I am not in the oil and gas industry. Whatever I blog about are just my trash! I will not responsible for your lost in your investment! :P

Prediction Vs Facts

The United States Energy Information Administration predicted in 2006 that world consumption of oil will increase to 98.3mb/d (15,630,000 m3/d) (mbd) in 2015. The fact according to OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report dated September 2015, as per to the date of their record, the consumption rate is at 92.79mb/d. The consumption rate forecast for 2016 will be lowered due to the slow down of economic activities and rising of renewable energy sector.

Set aside all the market factors, let us take a deep look at behind the science of oil production. Similar to any commodity, the earth resources are finite. I grew up in Kampar, Perak, which was once a famous tin mining town rich of natural tin resource. Nowadays, the town no longer produce enough tin for the industry. All we left were the emptied abandoned ponds of water. Therefore, I realize the fact that if the rate of harvesting the natural resources are higher than the reproduction rate, one day, the resources will be all gone, used up, and left emptied.

The World's natural oil supply is fixed because petroleum is naturally formed far too slowly to be replaced at the rate at which it is being extracted. - Wikipedia

Therefore, let us take a closer look at the chart below. If we assume that the oil production is irrelavant to market price and global events, naturally, the Hubbert theory should be applied. Due to the new recovery technology, we now able to boost the production of the oil, which causes a sharp rise of the production which violates Hubbert's theory. 

And The Crystal Ball Saids

It is abnormal to see such chart pattern. The sharp rise of the production may also signal that there could be a sharp fall when the oil field is at its end of production life.The recent mainstream news had focused too much on the market, the price and the OPEC. It is the fact that most human only care about money making, but they never realized the end of oil age is near. What happened now, with the global oil price slump, is actually beneficial to the oil consuming countries such as United States. The increase of their oil inventory is a smart move. They collect as much as they can to prepare for the coming end of their own oil field. 

The Iran Deal?

The real reason behind the Iran deal could be more than what we had expected. Just imagine when United States no longer able to produce enough crude oil, and once again, they had to depend on major producers such as Saudi Arabia. The Americans are smarter than that! Lets open this can of worms! There has been significant development on the re-newable energy sector. Other than that, the solar, wind or biofuel might not be enough to feed the power hungry nation. Furthermore, there are many other products which were produced by petroleum. Therefore, to have good terms with the 4th largest oil reserve country is a smart move to gaurantee some great deal in the future. 

Store The Cheap Oil Now

The oil inventory is growing every week. If the future oil price will go lower in price after the Iran sanction lifted, then why store it if you already know that it's going to be cheaper tomorrow. The "Theory" is, they want to store it because they don't know when they are going to ran out of oil! It could happened anytime, any year. The oil field could just suddenly emptied. They don't want the huge oil producers to know that! Therefore, the price is always speculated to the down side. 

Conclusion

I'm just trashing! :P stay cool and enjoy!

Living in Lies, Surrounded by Liars!

Some Church are full of liars. It is about how you want to live and survive in it. The fact that the power within a Church is pure peer pressure. Should I be the person who let the liar continue to influence the young minds? No! For sure.

I attended a talk about LGBT in a traditional church, where the speaker spread lies to the younger generations. I was so furious that I choose to use open confrontation tactics to counter the speaker. Of course I have thought about whether to become the nice person or the bad person, I chose to grab attention!

My audiences are the youngster, not the speaker! There is no point to correct the speaker and left the youngsters received the wrong information. This is the scenario. Should I keep quiet until the end of the talk and go talk to the speaker personally about her misleading information? Or should I grab the attention of all the youngster and have that final opportunity to gather them to listen to my point even though they might not have good impression on me anymore?

That’s the main question. I don’t want to let the youngster go back with wrong information planted in their minds. I want them to have doubts, to investigate it by themselves, to discover the truth. Not to blindly download the information from the speaker.

A lot of times, it is the pressure of the society that imposed fear on LGBT. One may choose to stay in the closet and remain in celibacy just because the work place and the church community against the concept. It is purely an act of pleasing people, not God. The feeling of guilty being LGBT, were imposed by those people who are close and being nice, but failed to understand the scripture.

Therefore, the heterosexual, homophobic church members are the ones who need more education. Some of them not even understand the scripture at all. When they able to pick and quote the particular scripture as against LGBT, they unable to pick and quote other scripture to explain about love and equality. Therefore, it is clear that those church leaders had been trained particularly to oppose the concept of love, and they were so shallow in the knowledge of the Bible. They follow blindly on what they receive the information from, without further investigate the truth of it. They willing to spread false witness against other churches and condemn others without evidence and truth.

We need to change! They are not true Christians!

Success? Break up!

A friend told me about a film, which I've failed to google search the title. The story of that film goes something like this: A man and a woman, who were in a relationship. The man is a writer and the woman is a dancer. They lived a struggled life, and one day, the writer's talent fot discovered and he become successful. Whereas the dancer is still struggling in her dancing career. She gets emotional and lost her self esteem. She started to envy of her boyfriend's success. In the end of the movie, they broke up.

Will you leave your spouse during his/her tough times which he/she unable to get through it by his/herself? Or you will find a way to help him/her to go through it no matter how much you sacrifice your own benefits?

Life is full of ups and downs, if a man unwilling to go through that down season of a woman, that relationship will not last long. I want to write about my mom and dad's story about their hard times. There was a time when my dad was so addicted on gambling, that my mom had made a decision to move to another place. She told my dad to leave his gambler friends and go somewhere new to start a new life. So my dad did chase after her and he ended his gambling habit.

The difficult time doesn't just end there, My dad got diabetes and need cardiovascular operation, he got very sick. Since he no longer eligible for insurance, my mom has to borrow money from her relatives to pay for the surgery. 

This is the real example of love. Both will not give up during the difficult time. Sometimes, outsiders might say it is not fair for my mom. Things cannot be judged by its surface. Sometimes, my friends will tell me they really envy of my parent's because they still holding hands, my dad sometimes still "kacao kacao" joking with my mom, they still sleeping on the same bed...etc. The conclusion is, how much you had sacrificed, you will get back more of it. Some old couple not even speak to their spouse. Some not even holding hands. Some no longer sleeping next to each other... 

Younger couples nowadays are less resilient towards difficult times. I have to admit that. If one party unwilling to find a solution for the trouble of hisher spouse. That's the end of it. A relationship is about both parties. If one party unwilling to go through the tough times with his/her spouse, it's not going to work. That goes to that successful writter who gave up the relationship. 

My mom could have just leave my dad during his gambling habit time. That way, she might not need to suffer the financial troubles which my dad had brought into the family. And she may not have to go through all the troubles of taking care of my sick dad. That supposed to be an easy way out. All those financial security is worthless, compare to holding the hands of someone she loves. This is how she values a relationship. And my dad didn't have to chase after her that time when he was into gambling. There were examples of others where the husband will beat the wife and continue gamble. Therefore I say it is all about both parties. My dad must willing to change himself. One thing good about him, he never lay hands on my mom.

How you value a relationship? Will you willing to g through all the difficult time with your partner even though it is not going to be fair for you? In the end, no relationship will be fair because one of the person will always have to go first and left the other one alone. It is about being togather that matters.

For that writer who unwilling to go through the tough time with his girlfriend. 

Charles & Keith VS Coach VS Kate Spade

I'm not a fashion expert, but recently had an investment in this industry. I was curious on how fast a fashion industry move and how it able to make a woman spend their entire salary on it. Back then, people were crazy about Longchamp. Later, Coach. At the lower price tag range, there are Charles & Keith.

Shopping Experience

Managing of a fashion brand is really important for the life and death of that particular brand. Who wants to pay for thousands if that particular shop design like pasar malam? I realized that recently, the new Coach boutique had adopt the open concept. The way they display their product is totally hazardous! They lay their latest Swagger bags the way like selling iphones? Which is a bad idea, it makes the bag looks cheap. While the shops that give best shopping experience will be Charles & Keith. They sprayed iconic perfume around their shop, with fashion forward cat-walk musics playing. Good lighting effect on the products... etc... It is so tempting for the consumer to make a wrong decision to buy their products. I have to be honest, I bought a C&K bag and I feel deeply regret because the feel of it just isn't same as the time I tested it in the boutique. Most importantly, the staffs! Probably the Coach staffs still thinks that their brand is so prestige that they often neglecting those plain dressing customers like myself. Staff at C&K and Kate Spade are friendlier and helpful.

Products

I just mentioned about C&K's products for its fast dying designs. I may love one design today, but I might hate it tomorrow. Therefore I will always think 3 to 4 times before I want to spend my money on C&K. I had too many regrets, now I'm looking for an opportunity to sell away my C&Ks. Do check out my Carousell. Whereas for the Coach products, it is just too simple and plain. Kate Spade do have some great designs like Stevie. Their product last longer and I never regretted every KS purchases. Furthermore, they have a lot of strange and cute clutches which is very difficult to be counterfeited and worth collecting.

Dying Fashion

Fashion industry moves faster than any other industries known to this days. I really like Cath Kidston 2 years ago, but now I'm sick of it! A Vietnam brand named Cuteshop were once very popular, but now is dying. It seems like only the high end luxury brands would be able to survive? I don't think so! Furla Candy bag and Balenciaga were some example of dying fashion.

Conclusion

Fashion is not my game! LOL... I still love Kate Spade for this time being and I don't know when I'll get sick of it. Let's just see what it will do in future.

Bestiality VS Homosexuality - According to Bible

In my previous blog posts, I've written my opinion on the timeline pattern of the Bible, the timeless and ephemeral elements within the Bible laws. If the ephemeral element of the homosexual prohibition in the Bible is indeed not applicable for today's Christians. Then, there will be a question on bestiality:

"If we say that Old Testament laws against homosexuality no longer apply, can’t we use the same reasoning to say that law against bestiality, or modern term, zoophilia, no longer apply?"

There is no doubt, it is not about the Law or prohibition. It is about the choice that our ancestor Adam had made before the fall of mankind in Genesis 2:18-24. Before woman was made, God offers the still perfect Adam a choice, and he had made that very first choice for the human kind. Therefore, God created Eve specially for him. It is the very first marriage that had confirmed that union of human-animal would be wrong. This is for sure because it has been made when Adam and Eve were still perfect.

Hah! God created Adam and Eve, not Steve! That's why homosexuality is wrong! Really?

The very very early purpose for God to create Eve, is for Adam to have a companion. A helper for him to take care of the Garden of Eden, and whole lot of things to do that God knows he need a helper for doing all the tasks. Just as the dyadic (two person) nature of Adam and Eve’s relationship was not used in Genesis to forbid polygamy (eg. King Solomon), so the heterosexual nature of Adam and Eve’s relationship does not forbid homosexual unions for the small percentage of the human population who are homosexual.

My personal view on this, that God permitted incest and polygamy, also He prohibit masturbation (Onan) and homosexual intercourse DURING THE EARLY DAYS when the main purpose of human on earth is to populate, so that there will be more man power to rule the earth. The process goes on during Moses time, God started to prohibit incest (Lev 18). Polygamy was still in practice. Until the time when Jesus came on earth, He brought back the original monogamy concept.

See, God is a better boss than any of the CEO on earth, He knows the importance of human capital and manpower. Talking about cooperate structure, if your company is growing and got a lot of sales and orders, you need to have enough man power to fulfill the orders right? Ok, now, when the company gets to the level of stability. What will a CEO do? Train the existing employee to be a better performers. In that meantime, you want your employees to stay focus and pour out most of their time to improve themselves. In the later stage of the stable growth, you want the working environment to be have the diversity.

As a conclusion for sure, from the very beginning of the creation of Adam, human already rejected bestiality because the animals are not suitable helpers. Some may bring an argument that animals are lower form of life, therefore, having sexual intercourse with them are degrading the human kind. I do have a different view on this. God's has shown us in Genesis 6, that it is not the degrading of human kind that angers Him. Human had sexual intercourse with the angels, which is the higher form than human. Therefore, the Nephilim was born. Those were the creatures God destroyed by flood.

So bestiality is not acceptable, it still doesn't justify that homosexuality is allowable. We will continue the discussion next.

Robophila In The Bible?

Talking about unnatural sexual intercourse, How does one differentiate between masturbation and the new "robophilia"? 

masturbate

verb UK    /ˈmæs.tə.beɪt/  US    /-tɚ-/        

› [I] to ​touch or ​rub ​your ​sexual ​organs in ​order to give yourself ​sexual ​pleasure

› [T] to ​touch or ​rub someone's ​sexual ​organs in ​order to give them ​sexual ​pleasure

The above definition is from dictionary.cambridge.org. While the term "robophilia" is quite new. You might able to find the definition from Urban Dictionary. I would suggest 3 to 5 years in the future, it will be used in scholarly articles and officially indexed in the English dictionaries.  

While most of the Christian denominations and Catholics prohibits masturbation even though the Bible didn't explicitly mentioned about the activity of it. The key word related to masturbation is "Lust". When a person have the lustful imagination over themselves or another while rubbing themselves. However, it still doesn't explain whether the activity of rubbing themselves is a sin. If the second definition of masturbation is to be considered, the main person is rubbing his wife's sexual organ for the purpose of fulfilling each other and for birth control.

At this point, I have to divert the topic a while to the concept of birth control. We all should be familiar with the Old Testament about Onan. Now, have you see the pattern yet? The pattern of the whole Bible! If you haven't, go read my previous post about incest. In Genesis Chapter 38, we understand that during that era, finding a partner was so difficult, that leaded Judah to instruct Onan to perform incest, which is a prohibition in Leviticus 18:16. If you still argue that everything in the Bible is timeless, then in this situation, the Bible had revealed to you the ephemeral situation! Reproduction was so important during the time of Onan, that his selfish act of spilling his sperms had angered God. 

Back to the main topic, masturbation, right or wrong? I am no judge, let God be the judge! 

Matthew 5:28 (KJV)

But I say unto you, That whosoever looketh on a woman to lust after her hath committed adultery with her already in his heart.

Adultery is a sin mentioned in the Ten Commandments. There is no doubt that this is the timeless law God gave to us. Therefore, My personal view on this (not  judging) is that masturbation in form of imagining others who is not your spouse, is wrong. It's still doesn't answer my further questions regarding other stimuli of sexual arousal such as, Objectophilia, Fetishism, Neo-Sexuality, and most recently, Robophilia. They all have nothing to do with another flesh. How about Narcissism? When one person love him/herself and have sexual arousal all by his/her own? I would like to have the Bible literalists quoting the direct and explicit verse in Bible regarding my above mentioned issues.

What is my conclusion? BIBLE IS ALWAYS ALIVE! Amen! It tells us about a Father. He was strict, because the nation is still young. He forgive, and shows us love, when the nation was in their 'teenage'. Our nation is now in the adulthood. We shall have that conscience to know that where the line of morality. 

Proverbs 23:13 (KJV)Withhold not correction from the child: for if thou beatest him with the rod, he shall not die.

Now, I would like to bring us back to the main topic of these series of blog posts. Homosexuality. Is a man, loving another man, a sin? Is a woman, loving another woman, a sin? Some argues that the key is in the sole responsibility that God had gave mankind: Reproduction. I did discuss a little bit about birth control in this post. We shall discuss more next. Thanks for reading.

Next Topic: "If we say that Old Testament laws against homosexuality no longer apply, can’t we use the same reasoning to say that law against bestiality, or modern term, zoophilia, no longer apply?" Please visit my blog again tomorrow! Thanks!

Old Testament: The Most Important Record of Human History on Sexual Violations

Bible is always alive. This is what I believe. The Words are breathing, both New and Old Testaments. A lot of Christian will tell you that the Old Testament is old laws which we no longer applies. Some Christians even gave a very hypocritical answer, saying that it's both "Yes" and "No". Some would say that Bible is timeless and the Law is still applicable in this modern days...etc.

My view? It is a 100% without the "Yes or/and No". The purpose of Old Testament, is an information God left for us to take the Bible and the holy scriptures as a whole! Many Christian love to read and pick only a few verses. Some claims that they must read the whole chapter. I would suggest Christians should read the Bible in whole. Trace its root, understand the history of it and seek God, continuously! Because the Bible is alive and one person can never fully master it. Even though a person claims that he/she able to rewrite the whole Bible in his/hers own, word by word without error. 

2 Timothy 3:16-17 (NIV)
16 All Scripture is God-breathed and is useful for teaching, rebuking, correcting and training in righteousness, 17 so that the servant of God[a] may be thoroughly equipped for every good work.

The reason I cited NIV above is because I've checked the interlinear and found that the word "breathed" is closer to the original Greek.

Ok, lets look at Bible as whole, on a topic of incest. It was written as a prohibition in Leviticus (Lev 18:9). If you know Genesis, Adam and Eve was the only two human existed on earth. Leviticus not existed yet during that time. The only way for Adam and Eve and their children to multiply is through incest. 

It is a miracle, if you think with an open mind, you will discover that the whole Bible is actually supporting the science and evolution of human being.

We all know the biological cost of incest. Therefore, from the closest form of human being to God (remember, Adam is the first person created according to God's image), the children born of incest had reduced the lifespan of human being. Adam died at the age of 930 years old, and Noah at 950. The life span of human decreased starting from Shem died at 600. Then, Abraham at 175. Moses 120. Moses is the prophet who wrote the Leviticus and Deuteronomy laws, which introduced the prohibition on incest. Since then, due to various diseases human life expectancy reduced greatly. However, in the modern days, human live around 70 years old. By now, you should able to understand the logic behind such strict sexual prohibition was introduced. The history long incest has brought the evolution of human, significant for our life expectancy and racial diversity. Then suddenly God instruct Moses to stop the incest. 

Do keep in mind that during Moses's time, hebephilia is not a prohibition. A girl who just reach puberty age, around 12 years old, were the right age to be married. I personally started to menstruate when I was 10, if my parents follow the marriage rule of the ancient time and got married, what do you think? Therefore, there are no prohibition on pedophilia written in Bible. Neither Old nor New Testament. Even though the similar term "pederasty" existed in the history, the word "pedophilia" was only coined in the 19th century. Sounds similar to the word "homosexual".

When we read the Bible and analyze it as a whole, I found that God is alive and am still alive in this modern days. His love to us is growing stronger and stronger. He has the ability to wipe out all of the disobedient people. Like what he had done during Noah's time. During Moses's time, He was angry, full of vengeance and He was violent. After that, He calms, forgive, and sacrificing His Son for our salvation. In the future, He will end everything, How about now? I do feel that He is in the process of preparation. Prepare for the day of the end, prepare a place for us in the heaven. (John 14:3)

By now, you may think that I am trying to divert the topic from my previous post about the word "αρϲενοκοιταιϲ". I am not trying to make the readers believe that the word suppose to mean pederasty. There are no mention about pederasty in the Bible. May be that's the reason why there are cases where modern clergy men practice pedophilia without fear of God? The Bible had explicitly describe the prohibition of sexual immorality between men and women, men and men, and men or women with animals, but never in the Bible describe about men and children. Does this means it is alright to be pedophile? 

The answer is NO for sure. Back to my first few paragraph, when it is about incest, you notice that the moral code evolve. Same thing happened to the morality of pedophilia and homosexuality. During Adam's time, where multiply was important, incest was accepted be be moral. While during Moses time, incest became immoral, because the population has reach certain level. Reproduction is still important during that time because human capital is important to build the nation. 

The main point is, the whole Bible had told us the both timeless and ephemeral condition! From total tolerance of incest, to total forbidden of incest. From introduction of the rituals law, to the final ritual of sacrifice, which is the death of Jesus. Of course, the Bible also told us about the timelessness of the Ten Commandments. 

Bible didn't explicitly prohibits pedophilia. It also didn't explicitly prohibit necrophilia. Same goes to "Robophilia". I will talk about the future form of sexual intercourse next!

 Bible prohibits LUST, not LOVE! Amen!

Glossolalia-The Causes of Heavily Harpaxed Pauline Writtings?

The debate continues on the scriptures written by Paul. If you notice on the table in my previous post here, we realized that most of the letters and scriptures written by Paul were full of harpaxes which is very difficult to decipher. I would personally believe that this phenomenon might due to Paul was given the ability of speaking in tongue. 

1 Corinthians 14:1-3 (KJV)
Follow after charity, and desire spiritual gifts, but rather that ye may prophesy. 2 For he that speaketh in an unknown tongue speaketh not unto men, but unto God: for no man understandeth him; howbeit in the spirit he speaketh mysteries.3 But he that prophesieth speaketh unto men to edification, and exhortation, and comfort.

I once met a young boy who claimed that he speaks in tongues. When I look into his eyes, he avoided the sight, and I asked him, "Boy, do you have Trouette syndrome?" That was the first time I encounter people who claims that they can speak in tongue.

I am a skeptic over his ability of glossolalia, because I don't understand his tongue. I ask his members, they also told me that they don't understand what he was saying. They merely told me that only God will understand. It is totally different from my understanding what real glossolalia should be:

Acts 2:1-6 (KJV)

And when the day of Pentecost was fully come, they were all with one accord in one place. 2 And suddenly there came a sound from heaven as of a rushing mighty wind, and it filled all the house where they were sitting. 3 And there appeared unto them cloven tongues like as of fire, and it sat upon each of them. 4 And they were all filled with the Holy Ghost, and began to speak with other tongues, as the Spirit gave them utterance. 5 And there were dwelling at Jerusalem Jews, devout men, out of every nation under heaven. 6 Now when this was noised abroad, the multitude came together, and were confounded, because that every man heard them speak in his own language.

Ok, back to the main topic about Paul. So the argument about the word "αρϲενοκοιταιϲ" is a harpax in ancient Koine Greek. Which were not found in other documents other than in the 1 Corinthians. That is actually a good thing, because it shows that Paul is the person wrote these 2 books. Could it be that he was actually writing in "tongue"?

As a skeptic, I don't think so. I believe that the "tongue" in the Bible means languages. Do bare in mind that Paul is a gifted person who able to speak different languages. That's why, when he spoke people understood it as their own language. 

As a person growing up in Malaysia, I learn 3 different languages, Malay, English and Mandarin. It was a blessing to know many languages, but it is also causing difficulties. We sometimes made up new words such as: Kiasi, tapao, sabun...etc. Where these words are like "tongues" because everyone living in Malaysia, regardless of what are their native languages, we heard it as our own languages! Thus, this led me to further investigate what "αρϲενοκοιταιϲ" means. Consider that Paul is a Jew, and he did learn Hebrew. The most interesting thing I found was in Septuagint Bible, one of the early manuscript translation of Old Testament to Koine Greek, the word "ἄρσενος κοίτην" was used in Leviticus 20:13, which originated from Hebrew. Since most of the ancient Hebrew can be easily translated due to the organized language system with proper root, suffixes and prefixes. 

Leviticus 20:13 (KJV)

If a man also lie with mankind, as he lieth with a woman, both of them have committed an abomination: they shall surely be put to death; their blood shall be upon them.

Let me clarify again, I have no knowledge on the Hebrew or the Koine Greek, and I am not an archaeologist. What I did was searching online on the Septuagint Bible and match the text patterns like a kid playing matching the shapes:

καὶ ὃς ἂν κοιμηθῇ μετὰ ἄρσενος κοίτην γυναικός βδέλυγμα ἐποίησαν ἀμφότεροι θανατούσθωσαν ἔνοχοί εἰσιν

So the mystery of the word was solved! The word "αρϲενοκοιταιϲ" does mean something directly translated from Hebrew "יִשְׁכַּ֤ב" which means lye, and "זָכָר֙" which means man. Ha! Old Testament! Is it really a set of laws we no longer follows? I don't think so! I am not a person who ignores the Old Testament, Just recently, the Leviticus piece was found.

But WAIT! There's more to come... My studies on various materials really open up my heart and mind. Please follow my blog post for the next chapter of my discovery. The next topic will be: Pederasty ( or Pedophilia for the modern term). The "men-bed" mentioned in Leviticus, Deuteronomy and the Epistles of Paul could mean something else. I will justify my findings on this in my next blog post.

I know it is nothing new, some people might have read it from all the scholar articles and published books. My aim here is to document my findings, my discovery and my thoughts on this topic. I have different views with some of the LGBT Christians around my area. The most prominent one in Malaysia would be Pastor Au Yong. I have read his books and sometimes, I do not agree upon his views. Thus, I feel there's a need to voice out my views too.

There's another LGBT Christian leader in Singapore who's name is Rev Miak Siew. I never heard his sermons before, and I'm going to check it out this Sunday. About the church, I still going to those non-LGBT friendly Churches around my area. The reason is, I am in the church to praise God, not to please the people. There is nothing wrong to go to church. If the church people throw bad words to harm you because you're LGBT, just go find another church! Always keep in mind that you are to serve God. Amen.