Monday, December 28, 2015

Oil Again: If I'm the Procurement Manager.

With the United States and Iranian oil gets into the market. Saudi Arabia and Russia are getting prepared to face the lower oil price. This situation is like how my mom go to get her fishes to make her fish balls for her hawker stall business.



In the wet market, there were more than 5 fish mongers selling different species of fishes specific for the purpose of making fish ball. It could be Wolf Hering, Mackerel or Yellow Snapper. However, in order to have best quality fishball, she mixed the fishes in her specified secret porpotion. 

All fish mongers selling 3 types of fishes. Each of them caught 100kg of fishes everyday each species. However, my mom only need 10kg for each species. in order to maintain diplomatic relationship and diversify her option, she bought fishes from all 5 fish mongers for 2kg each. 

The fish mongers may ask my mom to buy more from them and they'll give special price. However, to buy the fishes from a single monger could be as risky as putting the eggs in one basket. One day, that particular fish monger might get sick and unable to provide fishes for a few days. Without a good relaitonship with other fish mongers, my mom might not get a good deal from them.

Therefore, in such situation, oil import is also a serious diplomatic decision. We all know which country supplies the cheapest oil. However, it is also important to diversify the supply from different countries. If one day, Saudi Arabia suddenly taken over by ISIS and they refuse to sell any of their oil to countries which was their enemies, and the market was so dependent on those cheap oil, it would be a disaster. 

Therefore, a wise oil and gas import export minister or company manager will always have their eggs in different baskets. The lowered price might be some tasty sweets for the greedy people. A real wise leader will not be easily sign a long term contract just because someone offers a better deal.



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